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Beating the Financial Futures Market: Combining Small Biases by Art Collins

By Art Collins

Beating the monetary Futures industry will give you a simple, traditionally confirmed application to chop throughout the noise, verify what bits of knowledge are helpful, and combine these bits into an total buying and selling application designed to leap on profitable buying and selling possibilities as they happen. it is going to assist you increase either your percent of profitable trades and the base line profitability of these successful trades.

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By the September 9 close, another 2750 points had been tacked on. It’s not just singular events that confound. Mini-S&P day traders have largely been singing the blues for at least the last two years. There’s little follow-through to help you gauge probable direction. Even a decisive up day is likely to be followed by a down one and vice versa. qxd 8/10/06 8:59 AM But Why Doesn’t Spontaneous Trading Work? Page 9 9 day air pockets—rallies and breaks out of nowhere. Support-resistance levels are routinely breached before the market makes another assault on the opposite daily extreme.

If our perspective is narrow and limited, we could deduce we have an unprecedented loss-free system. Obviously, alarm bells should be ringing immediately unless we are the most naïve of pipe dreamers. Ding DONG, what’s the CATCH? The catch is we’ve rigged the system to be buy-oriented in a data field we know has an historic upward slope. With no stops in place, a paper loss can be held indefinitely until it’s bailed out. So far, that has always happened. Do you want to bet that it always will? Could you sleep nights while holding an open loss totaling tens of thousands of dollars just because it figures to eventually close out at a $1,250 profit?

Virtually every interviewee in Market Beaters concurred: You want to have some idea of what you’re testing—what you’re hoping to confirm. Otherwise, you’re merely trolling for best numbers, and you’ll find them whether or not there’s a legitimate bias behind them. A large enough sample of coin tosses would produce some periods—perhaps lengthy—of extreme results far afield of the expected 50–50 outcome. In statistics, there is a mean, but also a sometimes wide deviation from it. There are market tendencies that will occur to you over the course of your work.

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